Market Insights

U.S. Home Sales: Trends & Forecast (2019–2028)

1. National Market Overview (2019–2024)

Over the past five years, the U.S. housing market experienced dramatic swings. Home prices surged from 2019 through 2021, reaching record highs during the pandemic boom. The median existing-home price jumped 17% in 2021 alone (to $346,900) – the fastest one-year increase on record1. By mid-2022, the national median price hit an all-time high around $413,800 (June 2022) before leveling off. Even after a slight dip in 2023, prices nationally remained roughly 35–40% above 2019 levels (as of late 2024).

Sales volume also hit extremes. Annual existing-home sales climbed from ~5.3 million in 2019 to 6.12 million in 2021 (15-year high), then plunged in 2022–2023 once rates rose. Total 2022 sales fell to 5.03 million (−17.8% vs 2021), and 2023 dipped to the lowest since 2008. Inventory sank to 910,000 homes (1.8 months’ supply) by Dec 2021 – the lowest since 19992. By late 2022 supply rebounded to ~3.4 months but remained tight, keeping 2019 vs 2023 inventory down ~40%. Mortgage rates plunged below 3% in 2020–2021 on Fed cuts/quantitative easing, then spiked to ~7% by late 2022, cooling demand3. Pandemic lockdowns, $2.2T CARES Act stimulus, remote-work shifts, and supply chain issues all played pivotal roles, culminating in a 9.1% inflation peak in June 2022 and subsequent Fed tightening.

Key Events Timeline

  • Late 2019: Fed cuts rates; mortgages ~4%.
  • Mar 2020: COVID lockdowns; Fed to 0%; CARES Act stimulus/forbearance.
  • Summer 2020: Market rebound; rates ~3%; surge in suburban demand.
  • 2021: Inventory
  • Mar 2022: Fed begins hikes; mortgages >4%.
  • Late 2022: Inflation ~9%; mortgages ~7%; sales −35% YoY.
  • 2023: First YoY price dip since 2012; sales ~4 M; inventory tight.
  • 2024: Inflation eases; Fed pause expected; prices flat YoY; sentiment improving.

Timeline of Major Events (Gantt Chart)

Home Value Index (2019 = 100)

Sales by Property Type (2024)

2. Regional Hotspots vs. Cooler Markets

Sun Belt & Mountain West Boomtowns: Austin and Boise saw ~70–80% appreciation (2019–2022), then corrections of 18.7% and 10% respectively; Phoenix +30% then −7%. Still ~50–60% above 2019 levels4.

Coastal Expensive Markets: San Francisco up modestly in 2020–21 then −13% from peak; near 2019 levels. NYC metro +3–5% since 2019; Manhattan condos stagnant5.

Midwest & Northeast: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Hartford posted steady 10–20% gains with minimal pullbacks, attracting buyers priced out of coastal hubs.

3. Key Factors Shaping the Market

  • Interest Rates & Inflation: 2020–21 Fed ease → mortgages ~2.7%; 2022 tightening → >7%. Each 1 pp rise cuts buying power ~10%.
  • COVID & Remote Work: Lockdowns → brief slump; then suburban/rural migration; supply chain delays.
  • Fiscal Stimulus: CARES Act & checks → boosted down payments.
  • Policy & Politics: Eviction moratoria, raised conforming loan limits, Ukraine war → inflation → faster hikes.
  • Investor & Second Homes: Peak 18–20% share in early 2022 → −45% by 2023; amplified boom/bust.
  • Short-Term Rentals: STR boom → saturation & stricter regulations by 2023.

4. Homebuyer Profile & Behavior Trends

  • First-Time Buyers: 33% (2019) → 26% (2022–23) → 24% (2024), lowest since 19816.
  • Age & Income: Median age 36–38 (first-timers), 59–61 (repeat); median income ~$100K.
  • All-Cash Purchases: 20% (2019) → 26% (2023).
  • Loan Mix: Conventional ~80%; FHA/VA down; ARMs
  • Buyer Preferences: Space, yards, home offices; multi-gen homes up 17% in 2023.
  • Competitive Behavior: Bidding wars >50% in 2021 → ~20% in 2023; DOM 1 week → 3 weeks.

5. Inventory & Property Type Breakdown

Listings in 2022 were

  • Single-Family Detached: 88–90%
  • Townhouse/Attached: ~8%
  • Condo/Co-op: ~10%
  • Multi-Family/Other:

Entry-level homes saw the fiercest competition; high-end and new builds experienced modest inventory increases.

6. Housing Market Outlook (2025–2028) & Advice

Looking ahead, experts anticipate a gradual normalization over the next three years—albeit with wildcards like interest rates, inflation, and policy changes.

  • Home Prices: After double-digit gains (2020–2022) and 2023 stall, forecasts call for modest rises: +1.8% in 2024 (to ~$403K)7, +1.8% in 2025 (~$410,700)7, +2% in 2026 (~$420K). Zillow mid-2025 outlook predicts −1 to −2% in 2025–268. By 2027–28, easing rates could lift growth. No major crash expected; a “soft landing” with regional small declines/gains is likely, netting ~+10% by 2028 vs 2024 (real prices flat).
  • Sales Volume: NAR projects existing-home sales up ~7–12% in 2025 to ~4.5M, then +15% in 2026 to >5M9. By 2027–28, if rates settle ~5%, volume may return to 5.5–6M (absent recession). New-home sales should strengthen as builders adapt. Housing formation tailwinds (millennials in prime age) could boost demand; a 2024–25 recession would temporarily dip sales.
  • Mortgage Rates & Financing: Consensus sees gradual decline: mid-5% by late 2024/2025 (MBA forecast)10, ~5.9% average 2025 (NAR)7, 5–6% by 2026–27. Lower rates will improve affordability, re-activate renters, and coax new listings from locked-in owners. Rapid drops could trigger bidding wars; slow declines yield balanced thaw.
  • Inventory/Supply Outlook: Structural shortage of 3–5M homes persists. New construction may edge up if developer financing eases, plus aging ultra-low mortgages could unlock sellers by 2025–26. Institutional landlords might list underperforming rentals. Expect inventory to inch higher in 2025–27 but remain below 6-month supply; normalized levels possible in some regions by 2028.
  • Regional Differences Ahead: Corrected boomtowns (Austin, Boise) may rebound if price points attract new buyers. Some Sun Belt areas (Carolinas, FL) face insurance/climate headwinds. Coastal hubs (NYC, SF) see moderate recovery tied to office returns and foreign demand. Midwest/Heartland poised for steady growth (affordability, reshoring, climate migration benefits). Wildcards include flood/fire risk pricing and local policies.
  • Buyer Demographics & Intent: First-time buyer share may rebound toward 30%+ with down-payment aid or FHA limit hikes. Investor share likely stabilizes ~15–16%, easing competition for owner-occupants. Recession dips could attract institutional buyers. International buyers may return by 2026 if the dollar weakens, boosting luxury markets.
  • Rents vs. Buy Decision: Rents peaked in 2021–22, cooled in 2023. Flat rents vs. high rates may favor renting short-term; rising rents by 2025 could drive buying. Homeownership rate (~66% in 2020) likely remains mid-65% until affordability improves.
  • Potential Policy Changes: Possible down-payment tax credits, zoning reforms (allowing duplexes/ADUs), expanded affordable housing programs. Investor/STR regulations (e.g., NYC Airbnb law) and mortgage finance changes (40-year loans, Fannie/Freddie tweaks) could impact access. Political focus on affordability suggests incremental measures by 2028.

Bottom Line: Expect slow, sustainable growth—no boom or crash. Prices +1–2%/yr, volumes climb as rates ease, supply tight. Equity gains modest, but positive. For buyers, 2024–25 may offer a “sweet spot” of slightly lower rates and stabilized prices. Sellers should price realistically; well-maintained homes will sell. Investors need to emphasize yield and fundamentals over appreciation bets.

  1. NAR, Existing-Home Sales Reports (2019–2024).
  2. NAR, Inventory & Supply Data.
  3. MBA, Mortgage Rate Surveys.
  4. Zillow, Home Value Index Data.
  5. Redfin, Metro Trends Reports.
  6. NAR, Buyer & Seller Generational Trends.
  7. NAR, 2025 Housing Forecast (May 2025). Link. Official projection.
  8. Zillow Home Value Forecast (Jun 2025). Link. Market analytics.
  9. NAR, Existing-Home Sales Outlook (May 2025). Link. Sales projection.
  10. MBA, Mortgage Rate Forecast (Apr 2025). Link. Rate projection.
Scroll to Top